Work Package 3: Model Linking and Simulations

Description

Task 3.1 Linking of applied models (DYNK, BALMOREL and Femto.il)

DYNK, BALMOREL and Femto.jl are coupled using a soft link approach. Generally, DYNK provides changes in final electricity demand to BALMOREL that in turn models which technology mix is used to meet the demand. BALMOREL informs on how the match between demand and supply is achieved in Austria's electricity sector during all time steps (i.e. all hours of a year). It consequently indicates how the required system flexibility is provided, considering the interplay with storages and other flexibility options. The model calculates the structure of the cost components (operating and maintenance, labour, and capital costs) and investment needs for all relevant electricity system assets, including generation and storage technologies for the different scenarios developed in WP1: Foundations. Moreover, changes in the electricity price at the wholesale and retail level are calculated. These parameters feed back into specific parameters of the macroeconomic model (influencing electricity demand by companies and households as well as household PV generation). The process is repeated until convergence is achieved. Complementary, the flexibility optimization framework Femto.jl is applied to evaluate the effects of different grid tariff designs on representative distribution grids and corresponding actors like prosumers, consumers or grid operators. Key results and findings from this model are incorporated into BALMOREL (e.g. changes in investments into power system assets) and DYNK (e.g. changes in grid costs, the reaction of market actors on analysed grid charging practices).

For linking the models, we follow a three-step procedure: In the first step, the parameters for linking the models are specified. Then a link is established and tested for a simplified use case. After verification, the linkage is applied to the more complex model set-up.

Task 3.2 Model Simulations

Model simulations are run according to the model linkages established in WP2. The scenarios for the distribution of grid costs developed in WP1 will be transferred to the relevant parameters and run through the iterative simulation process. Key results obtained for the different scenarios will refer to

• changes in electricity demand by sector;
• changes to default investment and operating costs of the grid infrastructure;
• changes in electricity prices (differentiating net prices, grid charges and other taxes and charges);
• macroeconomic impacts (most notably GDP and its components and employment); and
• distributional impacts (i.e. changes in the real consumption expenditures and disposable income of the different household types).

Task 3.3 Sensitivity Analysis

The model simulations are also scrutinised by a sensitivity analysis of the most important scenario parameters, such as fuel prices and carbon prices as well as the parameters for electricity demand elasticity.

Generally, results derived from modelling are processed and analysed in a detailed manner, serving as a sound quantitative basis for the follow-up discussion and the derivation of recommendations on the way forward.